Negotiations between President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appear to be moving towards a conclusion, following the announcement on July 27, 2025, in Scotland of an agreement on trade and tariffs, which establishes a single US tariff ceiling of 15% for European Union (EU) products, effective August 1. According to the European Commission President, the agreement offers “certainty in uncertain times,” “stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.” European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič expressed his support for the agreement, emphasizing its importance. The governments of Denmark, Finland, and Sweden also expressed relief at the overall positive outcome of the agreement, contrasting with Hungary, Germany, and France, where Prime Minister François Bayrou spoke of a “dark day” for Europe given the “submission” shown in the negotiations.
The content of the agreement, released by the European Commission, provides, in addition to the “all-inclusive” tariff of 15% for most EU exports, zero-for-zero tariffs on a range of strategic products (e.g., aircraft and related components, certain chemicals). In this context, Italian agri-food exports to the US risk losing competitiveness against local US products.
However, beyond the possible imbalance in the “contractual conditions” in favor of the United States, doubts remain about the legal nature of the agreement reached. According to the accompanying note produced by the European Commission, contrary to the White House’s statement, it is not legally binding, and therefore has the same meaning as a letter of intent, subject to further changes. Furthermore, it should be noted that the two versions of the agreement made public are substantially different. The first discrepancy concerns semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, strategic sectors for both parties. While the US government maintains that the agreement provides for the application of the 15% cap to these products as well, the European Union believes that this 15% cap will also apply to any future tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors and that until the United States decides whether to impose additional tariffs on these products, they will remain subject only to US MFN tariffs. The regulation of digital trade is also subject to contrasting narratives, with the White House arguing that “the United States and Europe intend to address unjustified barriers to digital trade” and that “the European Union confirms that it will not adopt or maintain network use fees,” while the European Commission has stated that “we will not change our rules and we will not touch our right to regulate the digital space autonomously.” Finally, doubts and uncertainties also remain regarding steel and aluminum, whose tariffs, according to Washington, will remain unchanged, while Europe intends to reduce tariffs by negotiating “tariff quotas for EU exports at historical levels”.
We are therefore awaiting a joint statement in the coming days that will allow the texts of the two versions of the agreement, which, as has emerged, are not perfectly aligned, to be brought into line. Even if such a statement were adopted, it would not be binding, given the legal impossibility for President von der Leyen to “assume immediate obligations on behalf of the European Union.” The game between the EU and the US can only be considered closed following formalization through typical European legal instruments (e.g., regulations) or through the conclusion of a bilateral international agreement.
